Denise Martin Editorial on SANDAG's bogus population numbers

[EU note: reposted here because the Coast News does not have this online other than .pdf]

Numbers don’t add up when it comes to General Plan Update
by Denise Martin

A lot [sic, I think the Coast News omitted a lead-off question] when it involves the draft of General Plan Update 2035 — the official document guiding the growth of Encinitas for the next 25 years.

The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) is responsible for forecasting regional population growth, which Encinitas and other local governments use to decide how much new construction should be allowed in their towns. The Encinitas city planners, based on the SANDAG forecast, predicted that Encinitas’ population would increase 15.2 percent between 2010 and 2020.

This number — 15.2 per-cent — was used as the justi-fication in the General Plan Update to allow up-zoning that could result in the construction of 1,255 new apartments on El Camino Real, 847 on the Encinitas Blvd/Interstate 5, and another 280 apartments at the Santa Fe/I-5 Interchange.

Also included in the General Plan Update is changing current height restrictions (up to 40+ feet for grocery stores) and other exemptions that would lead to the citification of our town.

But the justification for all this building is fatally flawed because SANDAG’s estimate for population growth is outdated. Here’s a condensed version of a com-plicated situation.

SANDAG’s numbers were based on the 2008 California Department of Finance estimates, which were used to come up with 15.2 percent population growth. But the 2010 Census found the population of Encinitas increased only 2.6 percent between 2000 and 2010, and this slow growth will continue for years.

In fact, Beth Jarosz, senior demographer for SANDAG, made the following observations about San Diego County in a February 2012 article in The Union-Tribune: “Between 2000 and 2010, the 60-and-older population (in San Diego County) grew by 100,000 people. At the same time, the share of the region’s population under age 18 grew by only 1,000 people. With the first wave of the baby boomers turning 65 last year, we expect the region’s population to continue the aging trend in coming decades.

There are a number of other critical facts that the SANDAG forecast did not take into account: a major recession, an anemic economic recovery, high unemployment rates, a net migration out of California, and most important, declining birth rates. All these factors mean slower population growth for the foreseeable future.

So now that we know North County is likely to see low single-digit population growth for the coming decade — and not 15.2 percent — why still use numbers in the General Plan Update?

To continue promoting the General Plan Update in its current form makes no sense. Why scar the city with further developments if the numbers do not justify such aggressive growth?

If the Encinitas City Council is looking after the best interests of our town, they will rewrite the General Plan Update based on the most current census data and trends — and not on information that is seriously outdated. No household or business would make important decisions like this using such obsolete information.

We can still stop all this unjustified development. Visit SaveNewEncinitas.com and sign the petition to alter the General Plan Update.

Denise Martin is a new Encinitas resident.