Saturday, March 21, 2020

High-density living and mass transit are major contributors to pandemics

As we think about how our elected representatives want to transform Encinitas, this is worth keeping in mind.

Washington Post:
Coronavirus is so hard to stop because it is so easy to spread. As with other viruses similar to the flu, the coronavirus travels easily through the air or via human contact. That’s why public health experts are pushing social distancing. The fewer people we come into contact with, the less likely we are to contract or spread the virus.

The United States, however, already practices a form of social distancing in its daily life through suburban living. For decades, Americans have been criticized for their detached, single-family houses and their solo car commuting, but these factors may also mean that Americans are less likely to be in close quarters with strangers during their daily lives than are residents of most other developed countries. That alone means we have a form of protection many Italians or Chinese didn’t.

The data are crystal clear on this. China’s population density is 397 people per square mile. Italy’s is 532 people per square mile, and South Korea’s is 1,366. The United States, by contrast, has only 94 people per square mile. That’s got to be a fact in our favor.

We also come into contact with fewer people when we commute. According to the 2017 American Community Survey, more than 80 percent of Americans either work from home or commute alone by car. In Beijing and X’ian, on the other hand, only 30 percent of commuters travel by car. Italians similarly use public transit much more frequently than do most Americans. A paper from the Brookings Institution says that the average resident of Milan, the epicenter of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak, takes 350 trips a year on public transit compared to 17 for the average resident of San Diego. It’s a lot easier to get sick from the sneezing person next to you on the bus than it is driving by yourself.

These data suggest why New York seems especially hard hit by the pandemic. New York is one of the most densely populated places anywhere, with nearly 28,000 people per square mile. (Even Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus originated, has only about 3,200 people per square mile.) And most of those New Yorkers don’t drive to work; New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority says that more than 80 percent of rush-hour commuters to the central business district in Manhattan take transit. With a few exceptions in Staten Island and the fringes of the outer boroughs, New Yorkers live, work, commute and shop in much closer proximity to other people than almost anywhere else in the United States. It’s no wonder the virus is spreading rapidly there and in the commuter suburbs.


  1. Awesome! I knew the freeways, suburbs and McMansions would come in handy some day.
    I live near San Diego and I don't know anyone that takes 17 public transit rides a year. They must have only counted people at the train and bus stations.
    Pretty sure the local government will come up with some excuse to increase funding for transit programs that fewer and fewer people take.

  2. This is why Italy is in a pickle. Always kissing each other, living on top of one another and smoking. Do yourself a big favor and look at the bigger picture and not what the media tell you. Think for yourself.
    And thank you gavin newson (the greaser) for stopping folks from getting paychecks.

  3. Newsom's philosophy: Never let a crisis go to waste! Let's implement all those things we can't do at the ballot box during this crisis. Lets ban guns, ammo, alcohol, restaurants, bars, etc but we will keep that marijuana flowing.

    1. Yeah, but no none of those things are banned you fucking nutcase. What fucked up fantasyland do you live in? Do you really believe your own bullshit then get all triggered by your own bullshit? Get help, so sad.

    2. 12:09 A comedian referred to Fox news as "Bullshit Mountain".

    3. Blakespear riding on Newsom's coattails, making major hay in her "newsletters" trying to look concerned and important. The look does not fit her well.

    4. 12:09 you are an idiot or don't read.

    5. 12:09 hey potty fingers, did you learn to write like that from your mother? Have some manners.

    6. 7:59 did your parents give you permission to use the internet? It's past your bedtime!

  4. LA Times:
    As California shelters at home from coronavirus, construction of housing goes on

  5. It's the theory that once the rats hit a certain density in a confined space, they begin to eat each other.

  6. And the legal fight begins...

    This should be fun.
    Fun and wonderful!

    Group alleges city violated state law, should have had Coastal Commission review
    By Barbara Henry
    March 19, 2020
    11:16 AM

    The Encinitas-based North County Citizens Coalition is taking the city of Encinitas to court over its approval of an overnight parking area for people who are living in their vehicles.

    In its five-page complaint filed March 2 in Superior Court, the coalition alleges that the city violated the state’s public meeting, due process and anti-discrimination laws when it took steps over a series of months to establish the new homeless parking area on the Leichtag Foundation property.

    Encinitas also has “declared a false shelter crisis,” and violated both its own ordinances and state Coastal Commission requirements regarding permits, the complaint filed by attorney Karen R. Frostrom states. In addition to seeking reimbursement for attorneys’ fees, damages and “such other relief as the court deems appropriate,” the complaint asks the court to make a series of findings, including that:

    --The parking lot project cannot go on agriculturally zoned land.
    --The city’s shelter crisis declaration is invalid.
    --The parking lot project requires both a Coastal Commission permit and a state Environmental Quality Act determination.

    Encinitas Mayor Catherine Blakespear said she could not comment Monday, March 16, on the coalition’s court filing.

    Crista Curtis, a coalition member who has been handling the organization’s press releases, said the city’s attorneys have 30 days to provide a written response to the court. Once that’s submitted, the coalition plans to ask the judge to issue a temporary injunction against the parking lot, she said Monday, March 16
    The coalition hopes to obtain the injunction in mid-May when the City Council is expected to review the project’s first few months of operation and decide whether to cancel it, Curtis said.

    The controversial parking lot, which has space for 25 vehicles, opened for business in early February. It’s located in the center of a 67-acre agricultural property owned by the Leichtag Foundation. The agricultural property is bordered on the west by Saxony Road and on the east by Quail Gardens Drive.

    Encinitas officials approved a $1-a-year lease deal with the foundation in late January to create the parking area. The city has contracted with the nonprofit Jewish Family Service agency to manage the parking lot. JFS, which has three similar lots in San Diego, has received a $256,000 grant from the state’s Homeless Emergency Aid Program to fund the project.

    The parking lot project has deeply divided the community and more than 100 people turned out for the Jan. 22 council meeting when the lease agreement and JFS contract were approved.

    Project proponents have included people who work in community nonprofit organizations and volunteers for area church programs that assist the needy. MiraCosta College and the Encinitas Union District also have endorsed the proposal.

    Opponents have included many people who live in the Encinitas Ranch communities near the Leichtag Foundation property, as well as people who have been active in other city issues and believe the parking lot project has been very poorly handled by the city.

  7. Catherine can talk all the woo woo she wants but here's the question: where are all the test kits to monitor this virus? Big Daddy isn't going to bail us out and it's up to local gov't to DO SOMETHING besides new age blather.

  8. January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

    February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”

    February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

    February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”

    February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”

    February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”

    February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”

    February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”

    February 28: "THIS IS THEIR (the Democratic Party's) NEW HOAX!!!

    February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”

    March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”

    March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”

    March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”

    March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”

    March 5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”

    March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”

    March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”

    March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”

    March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”

    March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”

    March 9: “This blindsided the world.”

    March 13: "I take no responsibility."

    March 16: "This is an extremely serious crisis and we are close to a recession that can go until July and maybe August"

    1. "you can keep your doctor", "if I had a son", "the u.s is sorry for everything it's ever done", "global warming is real", "90 percent of the guns found in Mexico are from the the U.S, "close Guantanamo" "I'll balance the budget" etc. And then, speech after speech about nothingness. A lost Twilight Zone blank look for eight pitiful years.
      See... others can play this game.

    2. When you can argue facts, talk about Obama, Clinton, or Benghazi. Fox news has control of your thought.


  10. While America turned its back and slammed the door on friends and allies as the pandemic crisis emerged, even trying to steal away a vaccine company from Germany, China sent gowns, masks, gloves, respirators, and teams of scientists and medics to places like Italy and Iran.

    We are witness to the rapid decline of America on the world stage under an incompetent and petulant dimwit.

    1. may want to get your facts correct. The U.S has not only offered help to many countries (even Iran) but be mindful, number one comes first. How do you steal a factory in another country?
      You are prime example of a twisted leftist thought process. China started this mess just like they did with the SARS virus. Ohhh' but I guess you forgot that.
      The left, children in adult bodies. Fools

    2. 8:47 a.m You are either insane or watching too much of the giraffe necked Rachel the sheman madcow. Or both

  11. It never ceases to amaze me 10:06 and 11:33

    I was mentioning to friend the other day who pretty well center left.

    How can a person like Moscow Maddow lie and fabricate for 3 full years and be proven factually wrong about every bit of propaganda she propagated yet still

    1) Have a job
    2) Have viewers
    3) Have viewers that continue to this day believe collusion is real and spying by the Obama intelligence apparatus on a candidate for president of the united states and then an actual president of the united states was warranted.

    Twilight zone squared.

    1. It's simple. Being on the left means you are never sorry.
      Lie after lie, hoax after hoax. The left is a sick segment of society. They are, the enemy within.