New USC study refutes SANDAG growth forecast

In March, Denise Martin pointed out that the SANDAG population growth forecast being used to justify high density development in Encinitas was using outdated, faulty estimates.

The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) is responsible for forecasting regional population growth, which Encinitas and other local governments use to decide how much new construction should be allowed in their towns. The Encinitas city planners, based on the SANDAG forecast, predicted that Encinitas’ population would increase 15.2 percent between 2010 and 2020. This number — 15.2 percent — was used as the justification in the General Plan Update to allow up-zoning that could result in the construction of 1,255 new apartments on El Camino Real, 847 on the Encinitas Blvd/Interstate 5, and another 280 apartments at the Santa Fe/I-5 Interchange.

A new report from USC shows growth slowing dramatically across California.

The study projects that the state's population, now 37.3 million, will continue to increase at a healthy clip — about 1% annually — for years to come. But at least through 2050, we are unlikely to see the boom rates of recent decades, especially the 1980s.

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"Those of us who've been here for a while think of California as a place that's grow, grow, grow — and go, go, go — but this shows that we're not that anymore," Hans Johnson, a demographer with the Public Policy Institute of California, said of the USC study released Tuesday. "We're now more typical of the rest of the nation."

Presumably, built-out, expensive coastal cities like Encinitas should grow even more slowly than the statewide average as there is plenty of cheap, open space to build on inland.

It's time for the people of Encinitas to tell SANDAG and the city planners where to stuff it.