So who are all these people moving to Encinitas? A new resource using IRS data gives some great insight. How Money Walks tracks the relocation of taxpayers. It is weighted by Adjusted Gross Income, so counts professionals and the upper middle class much more than the working poor or the retired. Here's the map of taxpayers moving by state. Red is taxpayers leaving a state, and green is taxpayers moving into a state, with the magnitude represented by the hue.
Here's the California trend, and where California taxpayers are moving from and to:
California taxpayers are leaving for Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Oregon, and Washington, which overwhelms the immigrants from the Northeast and Midwest. So the question remains, where is all this population growth? But when we look at county-level data, we begin to understand.
San Diego County is actually a net importer of taxpayers, due to people moving here from Los Angeles and Orange County. With Encinitas being one of the more desirable and expensive places to live in San Diego County, it's safe to say the pattern holds here, too. So the next time you feel like complaining about crowds and traffic, just know that bringing high-density development to Encinitas is helping the wealthy of Los Angeles and Orange County escape the even worse crowds and traffic there.
And recreating the very environment they're escaping.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, part of the Encinitas charm are the areas with older housing stock. But that is a double edge sword as a lot of the older housing stock are smaller one story houses which are ripe for being replaced or greatly remodeled by the wealthier new arrivals.
ReplyDeleteThey move to areas like Leucadia for its charm and then want to change it. Of course they don't see that they're changing Leucadia because they're only changing their house. But multiply that one house many times and Leucadia loses its charm.
What's charming about weeds and dirt??
DeleteWhat's charming about endless cement and pink stucco?
Delete5:34, the pink.
DeleteI hope our new council make up will call bs on the projected population numbers forced on us by the BIA and Sandag, and other development interests that in no way represent any kind of reality.
ReplyDeleteIf there is one thing our new council can now do, it is to demand an accounting of our available accessory units and make it advantageous for home owners to come into compliance with amnesty and no penalties incurred for those coming clean.
To demand these units be secured for decades is unrealistic in a market that would stifle an owners ability to sell their property will never serve this community in our struggle to diminish the impact of increased infill demanded by unrealistic projected numbers.
Ideally, our council will stand up for the residents, [a thought that should come naturally but has not] and encourage property owners to come into compliance. All past sins should be dismissed and amnesty offered and whatever else can be used to bring our existing numbers to the fore by providing some sort of bonus to those who step up. Tax advantages to promote owners participation can serve to encourage all to help us fight against the prevailing false population numbers forced on our community.
If Kristen wants to prove her worth, she can direct council and staff to come up with plans to offer a way forward for property owners to WANT to come forward. Whatever advantages can be offered should be brought out to bring these into the light and help us all to fight the imposed densities that are destroying our community character.
Considering her base, this will not happen, but Kristen can lead the way to mitigate the unrealistic projected numbers by coming up with plans that are attractive to homeowners with all those hidden income producers that abound in this town.
Lets bring on the greater good and stop relying on vina's standard operating procedure of infill at all costs to community character.
Planning is there to be directed and to our shame, has been leading our compliant council the last few years.
Teresa's sublimation to vina in all things has been her undoing along with all the other shortcomings that appeared out of nowhere after her election in 2012 .
The public has been clamoring for our council to see the light of vina's mismanagement for far too long. We have a new day ahead. It is time to prove your worth. You have two years to stand up for the residents. It is in your hands to make your reputations be something to be proud of.
Kristin Gaspar was the council member who asked, on January 8 of this year, when she normally would have already been seated as the final appointed mayor, that an amnesty should be a future agenda item. This was to be part of the ongoing housing element update.
ReplyDeleteThe program was later briefly discussed during strategic planning. The public wasn't able to directly discuss amnesty at the strategic planning session, as is normally encouraged for regular agenda items. Planning Director Jeff Murphy reiterated what Tony Kranz alluded to, on January 8, 2014, that we "already have an amnesty in place." What is in place now, is NOT an amnesty, and was never referred to as an amnesty, under Phil Cotton or previous Planning Director, Patrick Murphy.
Gus Vina is misunderstanding the "institutional history" of Encinitas. What was in affect after 1993, were various versions of an affordable unit policy NOT a true amnesty. A true amnesty would mean something would be FORGIVEN.
Patrick Murphy also stated, very clearly, in answer to a question by Council Member Lisa Shaffer, that a covenant did NOT have to be in place to count affordable housing for the state mandates. If there is any way for the state to count POTENTIAL accessory dwelling units already allowed in all residential zones, that could greatly help our city's predicament and enable us to finally accomplish a certified housing element, not the expense of overcrowding our streets and reducing our quality of life.
KG had also asked for Jeff Murphy to explore exactly what can be counted, by the state. Murphy has already stated that there doesn't have to be covenants. A final misunderstanding is around the question of counting pre-existing units at all. One of the excuses I hear bandied about is that the affordable units must be new-build? If that's the case, then why have many people with pre-existing accessory dwelling units been coerced into signing twenty or thirty year covenants in order to "legalize."
11:06 Isn't that the agreement you (Lynn Marr) worked out with the sub-committee of the council because you refused to adhere to the codes of the city for many years? Didn't that agreement reduce the thousands of dollars you and your husband owe the city?
Delete"Amnesty" does have a side effect. It moves the burden of "affordable housing" from commercial areas that could be made mixed use, with adequate parking, to residential areas that are already suffering with lack of parking and inadequate streets. I hate the mansionization infill we see. However, I hate even more, illegal studios with in adequate parking. There are many such places a SFR, with an illegal granny flat and a garage conversion. The SFR has adequate parking for the main unit, but does not have the 4 extra spots needed for the other residents and their overnight guests. Amnesty is fine, but it needs to ensure basic standards (parking, safety, etc.) are maintained.
DeleteAh Ha! Thanks for that 11:57. Many, many things make sense now that didn't before.
DeleteHey Lynn, maybe you can donate directly to the pension fund? Kill two birds with one stone?
2:21, you are 11.57. The Marrs owe the city nothing for the City Attorney's costs and fees, and never did. They were never in violation of any codes and never refused to adhere to any codes.
DeleteAccording to Encinitas Municipal Code:
CHAPTER 30.54 OFF-STREET PARKING 30.54.020. General Provisions
D. No existing use of land or structure shall be deemed to be nonconforming solely because of the lack of off-street parking facilities prescribed in this ordinance. However, the facilities being used for off-street parking on the effective date of this ordinance shall not be reduced in capacity to less than the minimum standards prescribed in this Chapter. . . (Ord. 2003-10). [adopted 2003]
So according to EMC, accessory units existing prior to 2003 are NOT non conforming due to lack of off street parking. The Marrs were not in violation of any codes, either state or city. Your presumption of their guilt is based on your obsession, not on the facts of the case, which never went to trial, and so was never decided by the trier of fact.
DeleteEMC 30.48.040 T: ACCESSORY UNITS: The City finds that there are many benefits associated with the creation of accessory residential units on existing single family lots, which include: (Ord. 93- 07) [adopted in 1993]
Providing affordable housing for low and moderate income households without public subsidy while maintaining the general character of a single family neighborhood.
Providing a cost-effective means of serving development through the use of existing infrastructure.
Providing a means for home owners of new or existing homes to meet loan payments.
Providing security for senior homeowners.
1. On parcels zoned for residential single family dwellings as a permitted use, one attached or detached accessory unit may be constructed. Attached and detached units shall be permitted by right.
And according to California Government Code:
GC §65852.150: The Legislature finds and declares that second units are a valuable form of housing in California. Second units provide housing for family members, the elderly, in-home health care providers, the disabled, and others, at below market prices within existing neighborhoods. Homeowners who create second units benefit from added income, and an increased sense of security. It is the intent of the Legislature that any second-unit ordinances adopted by local agencies have the effect of providing for the creation of second units and that provisions in these ordinances relating to matters including unit size, parking, fees and other requirements [such as pre-existing setbacks], are not so arbitrary excessive or burdensome so as to unreasonably restrict the ability of homeowners to create second units in zones in which they are authorized by local ordinance.
§65852.2 (a)(1) Any local agency may, by ordinance, provide for the creation of second units in single-family and multifamily residential zones…
(3) When a local agency receives its first application on or after July 1, 2003, for a permit pursuant to this subdivision, the application shall be considered ministerially without discretionary review or a hearing, notwithstanding Section 65901 or 65906 or any local ordinance regulating the issuance of variances or special use permits… [emphasis added]
(b) (1) When a local agency which has not adopted an ordinance governing second units in accordance with subdivision (a) or (c) receives its first application on or after July 1, 1983, for a permit pursuant to this subdivision, the local agency shall accept the application and approve or disapprove the application ministerially without discretionary review pursuant to this subdivision …
Anyone with pre-existing units should be encouraged to come forward to have their unit or units recognized and counted. They should be encouraged to do so through a true amnesty. If the unit pre-existed the City's incorporation, the fact that there is no permit on file does not prove that the pre-existing unit is "illegal" or violates parking or set back codes not yet in existence. Permits were not required for "garage conversions" under the county, and actual permits were not kept, or maintained by the City that had been given under the county's jurisdiction.
I'm happy I didn't waste a few minutes of my life reading the lengthy legal opinions of people who know nothing about the law.
DeleteWhom ever they may be.
6:17 I don't know what kind of wool you are trying to pull over our eyes, but a judge did rule on the Marr's case and ordered them to come into compliance with the Encinitas city code. Are you denying that?
DeleteThe Marr's owed the city an amount that exceeded $850,000. Are you denying that?
The sub-committee negotiated with the Marrs and they must come into compliance and pay about $50 per month to reimburse the city for the expenses incurred in this case. Are you denying that?
The Marrs must pay around $600 for a building permit. Are you denying that?
If the Marrs miss one payment, they will immediately have a lien placed on their property again for non-compliance of the agreement. Are you denying that?
Lynn Marr bashed the city attorney and some council members every chance she could at the council meetings. I am now convinced it was a retaliation tactic on her part to be not only a damn nuisance to him, but to the rest of us who had to listen to her constant rants. I am also convinced she could have cared less about the issues she was speaking about, but used that to continue to demean the city manager and the council members.
I believe in karma and I think she is getting hers.
The "ruling" was after a fraudulent default judgment, also not proven, but manufactured by the City Attorney's partner, Randal Morrison.. The renewal of the judgment is void because a memorandum of costs and fees was not served on the Marrs before or after the entry of their "default."
DeleteThe Marrs never owed the City "an amount that exceed $850,000," and no judge ever made any ruling that they did. So yes, I am denying that. Once again, you are morally and factually incorrect.
The Marrs are not paying anything for a building permit. The Marrs agreed to settle by paying for an affordable unit policy permit for a pre-existing, already PERMITTED structure. So yes, I am denying that, as well.
The Marrs only have to pay the City $50 per month for the first five years of the covenant, if the pre-existing accessory dwelling unit is rented out. So yes, I am denying that, too.
Your Karma is that you are calling down other people's Karma on them. I am certain the Marrs could care less what you believe or think.
The Marrs were defamed by the City Attorney's law firm. They were subjected to years of abuse of process, selective enforcement and negligent infliction of emotional distress. The City's attempt to silence them, and your continuing slurs, were never successful.
The new Council tacitly and by their vote, recognized the inequities of the lawsuit, including harassment by discriminatory litigation, and so the case was settled. It was in the best interests of all parties to avoid further litigation including avoiding further exposure of the City to liability and increasing legal costs and fees.
City Attorney Glenn Sabine, according to public information requests, has filtered $10 Million through his law firm, Sabine and Morrison, in the last seven years, as paid to him by the City of Encinitas. That is as much as the amount that the City is paying for Pacific View, excluding debt service and bond counsel fees, over 30 years, which purchase price is considered excessive by many, considering the donated land already belongs to the public.
Also, unlike many other converted garages, the Marrs never converted their garage. It still exists, as part of a permitted building, as verified by Code Enforcement upon inspection in August of 2002 and examination of the still existing, from 1953-1957 residential building record.
Delete7:58 Sorry, Lynn, you will not convince me that you did nothing wrong. You brought this on yourself and you have only yourself to blame. People are now seeing that. Gaspar and Krantz wanted to finally be done with you so they negotiated something that would work for the city and you.
DeleteYou must comply with the agreement. If you don't, another lien comes your way. Wonder what choice you will make this time.
Stop wasting the city's time and money on such nonsense to prove your point. The rest of us are sick of it and we are glad someone finally knocked some sense into your head.
You should have hired yourself a smart attorney because you a far cry from understanding the law. You do know that laws change, don't you? I didn't think so.
9:11 you know nothing in regards to the facts of this case. This was pure abuse by the city.
Delete9:31 So sue them if you think you have a case. They will make mince meat out of you for the second time around. Have fun.
DeleteThe case is settled. 9:42, again, as 9:31 succinctly stated, you know nothing in regards to the facts of this case.
DeleteThe Marrs could have hired an attorney and sued. The City agreed to settle, instead, partly because it didn't want to have to pay more legal fees in defending against future claims relating to the void judgment. According to California Rules of Court, which have the same effect as statutory law, the monetary judgment is and has been undeniably void. The City Attorney knows and should have known this for at least seven years.
No one cares whether you are convinced or not, 9:11. No one cares about your opinions about what the Marrs should have done, or your interpretation of the settlement agreement. The Marrs are in compliance with EMC, and the agreement.
Laws change, but they are not retroactive unless that is specifically stated within the newly enacted law. No one cares what you wonder. We are sick of you and your "should haves."
You speak for NO ONE but yourself, and as you only post anonymously, you don't even speak for yourself. You are a pathetic, cowardly cyberbully, know-it-all troll, who has intentionally targeted one of the volunteers who helped found this City. You've anonymously cyber-stalked a now elderly woman for years, here, and before, on LB. Are you proud of yourself?
Why don't you get a life? Get some fresh air and take a walk. Cut back on your self-medications. Worry about your own Karma and your own health, including your mental health.
7:14 Sick, sick, sick.
DeleteThe really funny thing is that Lynn has convinced herself that all these posts come from one person.
DeleteIt's clear that she cannot fathom that there might be more than one person who disagrees with her twisted world view.
The fact that multiple posts express similar points is not evidence of a single "bully/stalker." It means that there is an objective reality beyond her paranoid fantasies that is understood and shared by many people.
7:14 AM
DeleteGiven the use of CAPS, I suspect that you're Lynn. If that's the case then all you have to do is read the appellate opinion to get a sense of Lynn's legal acumen. If you're not Lynn then you need to explain better how the judgement is null and void.
For all the crap the Marr's pulled through that whole process, adding to the city's costs, they should be paying something. Again, read the appellate opinion to get an idea of the crap they pulled. Disgusting.
Again you know not of what you speak. The Marr's were set up, it is obvious if you look into what really happened. At least they took a stand against a very awful council / CA and basically have won in the end.
DeleteWow. To be worthy of a "setup," the Marrs must be really important--a big threat to the powerful.
DeleteThat's what this is really about.
For the Marr's to admit the truth, they would have to also admit that they are not as important as they like to believe.
If this was just a case of a mundane code violation, and bad decisions on how to respond to it, then it turns out the Marrs are just ordinary folk like the rest of us.
What dragged it out was the rush they got from convincing themselves that they were so special and important that the elite decided that they had to conspire to "get them."
What dragged the issue out was that the City attorney's law firm, Sabine and Morrison got paid huge fees to pursue harassing litigation with no basis in law or fact. If you're not willing to read the relevant law, then don't, but don't think you know anything about the case.
DeleteWhat's good about it is that the horrible conduct of the City attorney in this case may, in the end, help open a pathway for a true amnesty.
Stop beating your head against the wall. The bottom line of all this is the city staff and council want more development and more people. That's where the revenue comes from to pay for way-too-high salaries, benefits and pensions, and to radically overpay for things like PV and capital improvement projects. To make the massively crazy scheme work, revenue has to continually increase. The way to increase revenue is to build and overpopulate. The council and staff will not do what the majority of residents want because that upsets the scheme.
ReplyDeleteSince Kristin Gaspar was elected mayor, and since she was the one that asked for a future agenda item re a true amnesty for pre-existing accessory dwelling units, on 1/8/14, we do have an opportunity to count the already existing affordable units, by giving homeowners incentives, not disincentives, to come forward, to count units for state mandates.
DeleteBecause a real amnesty could not be implemented under Stocks/Bond/Dalager and Barth, doesn't mean this new Council won't find a way to document and count existing or potential affordable dwelling units.
There can now be a new dynamic on council, with Stocks', Bond's, Dalager's and Barth's exits.
8:12 There has to be a majority of the council to go along with Gaspar's suggestion. If not, the motion fails.
DeleteTony Kranz would go along with the motion and so would at least one other council member.
DeleteWe are definitely becoming what we never wanted to be in this city -- another LA and Orange County. We have the wonderful city manager and council to thank for this.
ReplyDeleteYou people who voted for Gaspar should not complain when you see more development and more traffic. She is the developer's best friend.
Hold your breath for the next two years.
"These People?" "wealthy Chinese buyers that Carmel Valley's excellent schools bring?" "recreating the very environment they're escaping?"
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing neither of you have any idea how offensive those statements are?
Every single co-worker of mine who is of Chinese descent and lives in Carmel Valley is an American citizen. I'd put the total number at around 45-60 for my company. Eight in my immediate group were born in Asia, but all came to the Michigan, Iowa, or Connecticut in the 1980's, and their children are American born.
There are also several families with Taiwanese heritage, and some are originally from Hong Kong. None of them would appreciate being called Chinese. I will leave out the Indians, Russians, Koreans, and Vietnamese who live there, and also the people of European descent. Why? Because like most of the "Chinese" in CV their homes are new and close to work. Oh, and they don't have to put up with tired old Encinitas racists.
Your ignorance of Asian culture aside, how long does one have to live in the U.S. to be considered "American" enough in your eyes? Do they have to get eye surgery, or would you call still them "Chinese?"
Here's a hint, ethnic ommunities tend to cluster in areas where others of common heritage live. There are many reasons for that, including schools, but it's still crude to refer to any popiulation in terms of their race, ethnicity, or how they conform to stereotypes.
I'm guessing no one has ever told you how easily offended you are.
DeleteI'm guessing you're so eager to be offended that when someone discusses international migration patterns, you interpret it as some kind of slur against Americans of non-European descent.
I realize you don't get out much, but wealthy Chinese have been cash buyers making up a significant percentage of the market in a number of North American cities like Vancouver, Arcadia, and San Marino. And it's been happening enough in Carmel Valley that local real estate blogs and realtors have been discussing the effect.
And no, nobody except you said anything about Americans of Asian descent.
I can only imagine the outraged rants you sent Channel 10 News.
DeleteGeez, 2:17, stop with the trendy, phony, bullshit political correctness. I'm a Caucasian European-American. That would register with you if you met me, right? Just as my height, weight, hair and eye color would, right? Physical characteristics are physical characteristics. They're undeniable and impossible not to notice. Irrefutable fact because it's overwhelmingly true: Birds of a feather flock together.
DeleteThe Chinese do not have mush history, understanding or appreciation of capital markets. They have blossoming wealth, and they invest in vehicles they value and trust. Real estate is one of those vehicles. You may own stocks or mutual funds in your 401k; most Chinese would prefer to own property in stable and legally sound markets (including the States).
DeleteYou do realize that people moving here from LA and OC are "California Taxpayers," too?
ReplyDeleteI don't think you understood the post. What part of the post implied otherwise?
DeleteDid anyone catch that silly piece by Barth trying to claim validation and victory because Gaspar won? What planet does her thought process dwell in? Please turn off the light on your way out, can't come soon enough!
ReplyDeleteWell, what did Barth say now? Sure happy that woman will be gone. Maybe she made enough money on council to get a new hair do and buy some up to date clothes. We can only hope.
DeleteKudos to Andrew and The Beacon today for the following.
ReplyDeleteVina's performance review has been moved up from January to this coming week so he can have the support of Teresa before she leaves. The timing stinks.
As much as we all have been wanting this to be released since the summer, that it is now going to give Teresa a chance to support this coastal weasel one last time before she leaves, is despicable.
This coming wednesday the council needs to see and hear from as many as can attend.
Will they want to show more of the same that we have had far too long or finally listen to this community and dump this pied piper that has been leading them before we get any closer to the edge?
Pack the Halls Wednesday and demand this be dealt with by the new council and mayor and not Teresa. Her opinion of this character is as unreliable as they come and her blindness of his machinations needs to stop now.
I can see it now. 3 to 2 in favor of giving him a glowing review and then we are stuck with him for the next year, at the least. Help stop the madness and come on down and let them see and hear what they should be doing about this character.
The council can decide at any time to discuss whether to retain any at-will employee such as the city manager or city attorney. It takes 3 votes to either retain them or dismiss them. Since they both have employment contracts, I presume, the terms of severance would be spelled out. Usually, just having a bad review isn't enough to waive a severance. It's standard to include in these contracts receiving a severance for all but gross negligence or malfeasance but even then councils usually pay a severance just to end it.
DeleteHowever, this fixation on the city manager and city attorney is misplaced. Its the council who makes the decisions and sets the policy. And since the candidates most favored here on this blog got their head handed to them, you aren't going to make up for that by firing the city manager.
10:32 I was under the assumption that if one had a contract, they were not an at-will employee. Contracted employees can be let go as well, but I believe there has to be a specific reason. An at-will employee can be let go for no reason at all and they don't even have to be told why.
DeleteWhere I can I find the info that it only takes 3 votes to fire the city manager?
11:56 AM
DeleteAt-will means just what it implies. While there can be many things included in an employee contract, severance terms are almost always included. Usually, the terms reflect cause, length of employment, payout, etc. But the reason can be as arbitrary as "wanting to go in a different direction". Of course, that kind of justification doesn't fall under "for cause" and the contract will specify a severance package (i.e. money).
But I'm sure for appearances sake, should the council decide to do that, they will have some kind of process so they don't appear to be acting arbitrarily. Having said that I don't think the council is inclined to replace either.
1:02 I agree. The council as it is now will not have the guts to let the city manager or city attorney go. That is why we need better leadership, but that won't happen at least for another two years.
DeleteThe wrong people keep getting voted back into office. Shame on us.
1:02 At-will employees, without a contract, can also receive severance pay. I know because I was one of them.
DeleteVina Needs to GO. Hence glad Barth is going. She has bad judgement, intelligence and leadership. She can't leave soon enough.
ReplyDeleteBack to the original post, EU cherry-picks isolated statistics that fit his doom and gloom point of view.
ReplyDeleteA broad and objective analysis shows the California economy and labor market is robust.
http://www.businessinsider.com/state-economic-growth-rankings-2014-8?op=1
California is the home of research, development, incubation and commercialization of whole new categories. When businesses mature, and margins are squeezed, it makes sense to move low-value operations to lower cost labor markets in another state or off shore. As long as new invention and business incubation outpaces the runoff of low-value jobs, our economy will continue to thrive.
The best and brightest from access the nation and around the world come here to be a part of this economy. It's not just Silicon Valley, either. Qualcomm, web sense, biotech R&D, Teradata, military drone development--our area is a focus for all for these.
More on local economic impact of the rise of drones:
Deletehttp://voiceofsandiego.org/2014/05/23/what-we-know-about-san-diegos-drone-industry/
Thanks for the non sequitur, but we're talking about migration patterns, not general economic health.
DeleteAre you disputing that California has negative net domestic migration? If so, please show your source.
San Diego County population is affected by more than one trend. Domestic migration is net negative in the short term. Countering that trend is natural growth (births minus deaths), which is positive. Which force is larger? Natural growth. That's why the county population is still growing.
Deletehttp://voiceofsandiego.org/2010/05/17/san-diego-population-grows-despite-continued-domestic-outflow/
My point was that the local economy has exposure to several industries that can be expected to exhibit strong growth in the years ahead (bio-tech/pharma, drones, mobile tech, info security, data analytics, etc.). If these industries expand as expected, and produce high paying local jobs, it is entirely possible the domestic migration trend will reverse.
"Countering that trend is natural growth (births minus deaths), which is positive."
DeleteOr not (1) (2).
Expanding . . .
DeleteSo in the future, will everyone in Encinitas work for SAIC, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Web Sense, TeraData, or Qualcomm?
Of course not.
But the people who do will need houses (construction jobs), clothes (retail jobs), food (restaurant and grocery jobs), cars (auto dealer jobs), etc.
In short, if you work in psychology, freelance writing, insurance, talent recruiting, wealth management--just about any sector, many of your clients will be coming from these growth sectors of the local economy.
Very few of us are completely economically independent from the trend. Be careful what you wish for. We certainly need to protect our quality of life, but I'm not sure folks realize the negative feedback loop that zero growth creates.
Not robust, vibrant.
DeleteGrowth does not ensure security. It ensures suicide.
EU 9:43,
DeleteI read both of your links, but failed to find the part where births minus deaths had gone negative as you claimed.
Please point me to the specific paragraph.
Here's US, well below replacement rate:
Deletehttp://money.cnn.com/2013/09/06/news/economy/birth-rate-low/
Pretty sure this holds for California too, with Calif hitting Depression-era low birth rates.
If you think zero, or negative growth would be great, may I suggest you consider moving to Detroit?
DeleteThey have managed to create a utopia where the population has gone back to 1910 levels. I'm sure the rush hour traffic is light.
http://www.forbes.com/pictures/emeh45mifi/a-declining-population-in-a-widespread-city-17/
9:43 AM
DeleteThe point above isn't that the birth rate is increasing. It isn't and it has been declining for a number of years, which is one of the reasons that PV was available. The point is that as a percentage of population increase, births have a larger share because in-migration to California has decreased both in absolute numbers and being offset by higher out-migration numbers.
The birth rate and migration patterns are affected by the economy but at least for now there doesn't appear to be enough new jobs created to entice people to want to move here especially given the high cost of living.
So these numbers may change if the economy improves enough for people to either move here, stay here or have kids but I think most demographers believe the high in-migration numbers won't return anytime soon if ever.
EU 10:10,
DeleteYou're pretty sure?
In 2013, California had 506,693 births and 240,821 deaths.
San Diego County had 44,650 births and 20,007 deaths.
I'm also "pretty sure."
http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/estimates/e-6/documents/E-6_Report_July_2010-2013w.xls
Good find. I stand corrected!
DeleteAccording to my friend that works at the morgue, 10 people a day die in SD county, your numbers are way off.
Delete10:20 the reason that PV was available is that hundreds if not a thousand children in Enc go to private schools, children that went to public school 30 years ago. Anyone that wants an education for their children sends them to private school.
DeleteIn a County of 3.21M people, if we had 10 deaths per day, that would translate to an average lifespan of 879.5 years.
DeleteDo the math, then go show it to your friend at the morgue. I'm pretty sure there was a misunderstanding somewhere.
Just a note as the above reference points out. The state Department of Finance Demographic Research group is the source for official demographic numbers, although SANDAG coordinates their estimates with them and SANDAG's numbers may vary slightly.
DeleteEU 10:35,
DeleteWe can agree that the SANDAG estimate is off. They are likely depending on assumptions from the 1960-2000 period. I think the housing unit allocation for Encinitas is too high, and the number should come down. There will be some growth, but not anywhere near 15.2%. We can and should lobby for SANDAG to update their models and assumptions. Market forces will also help. Notwithstanding the insanity that caused over-development in the inland empire, investors don't like to lose money. If supply outstrips demand, construction will slow or stop, even if there are parcels available with zoning for more units.
10:33 AM
DeletePrivate schools are a factor but demographics play a larger role. If families aren't having as many kids then there aren't that many kids to teach. Also playing a role in PV is the changing makeup of the neighborhoods around it.
The PV closure was complicated.
Delete- As a proportion of the total population, we have fewer school age children here than we used to.
- Affluence probably correlates to more private schooling.
- Class sizes have increased
- It's more cost-efficient for the district to own, maintain, and manage fewer properties. They built additional classrooms at PEC and Cardiff Consolidating from three schools to two brings more efficient staffing, more efficient special ed capabilities, lower utility and maintenance costs, and a very large one-time gain from the sale of the PV property.
You may not like it, but that's why it happened.
They used to split students between Ecke Central and PV to try to utilize both campuses but in the end it didn't pencil out. And the shrinking school age population isn't just here in Encinitas but also statewide and national.
Delete10:29 AM
DeleteYou may mean well but please do a little checking before passing on what a friend tells you. According the SD County Medical Examiner's 2013 Annual report (page 65) of the 9,842 deaths reported to them they only claimed jurisdiction in 2,974. There are only certain deaths they get involved with so most bodies don't wind up in the morgue.
As evident above it appears only half the deaths are even reported to them. Death certificates are issued by the county health department.
10:36- Clearly you are the product of the public school system........
DeleteI hope these people moving to Enc are bring Money with them, this city is broke.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the people who lived here said the same thing win we arrived
ReplyDeleteYes. and the City and County didn't listen. The gridlock, stress, water crisis and pollution are much worse because if it.
ReplyDeleteLet people live according to their means until they learn how to earn a living, save and be able to buy a home in Encinitas.
ReplyDeleteEncinitas needs to focus on preserving existing residents quality of life, not lowering it and selling out all the benefits for developer profits.
Replace existing incumbents, Fire Vina and lets focus on quality of life.
High cost of living does NOT detract large numbers of poor, illegal immigrants. If that was case, Encinitas would look like Rancho Santa Fe or Del Mar. Go to all the Encinitas apartment complexes then you'll know about the reason for more housing (low-income) (all along Encinitas Blvd and the Santa Fe area). In fact, St. John's has a whole department specifically for that population. It doesn't matter how high the rent increases in Encinitas, they will still come because there is a "path" from Oaxaca to Encinitas, which goes way back in time. Their families and friends live here, so they know to come here. The rents can go up to $2,000: one person will be on the lease and rent out the rooms, doesn't matter how expensive it gets, they will come. Go to the 99 cent store, Walmart. There are also groups of Brazilians, coming up to Encinitas. Are they all legal? Pacific Beach is filled with them.
ReplyDelete