What's really got to have Gaspar backers excited is that Roberts pulled only 39% of the vote, while the two Republicans pulled a combined 61%. With most Abed supporters likely to vote Gaspar in November, Gaspar is now the clear favorite to win the seat.Similarly, Logan Jenkins in the U-T:
[...] the highly disciplined Gaspar is the odds-on favorite to beat incumbent Dave Roberts in the general election.Indeed. Gaspar was on the cusp of seizing one of the most prized and powerful public offices in the county. And then this happened:
Again, that’s not preference talking. It’s the implacable math.
Get out your own calculator.
Roberts won a pathetic 39 percent of Tuesday’s vote. 39 percent.
Not since incumbent Supervisor Paul Eckert, a deeply wounded candidate, finished third in the 1986 primary has a sitting supervisor performed so poorly in a primary.
For her part, Gaspar earned 34 percent while skirmishing with another well-funded Republican mayor, Escondido’s GOP-backed Sam Abed.
“I think it will be tough for Dave to capture Sam’s voters,” Gaspar told me, doing her best not to smirk at the self-evidence of the statement.
If you give Abed’s rock-ribbed conservative votes to the center-right Gaspar, which you logically must, she trounced Democrat Roberts by more than 20 points.
Despite Donald Trump's stunning national upset tonight based on strength in blue-collar rust belt states, the vulgar Trump was then and remains now politically toxic in moderate, well-educated North San Diego County. Gaspar's huge unforced error revived Robert's near-dead campaign.
Compounding the error of Gaspar's spontaneous Trump endorsement were a couple of more deliberate bad ideas. First, Paul Gaspar's decision to pretend to be a medical doctor in campaign ads, presumably on bad advice from a consultant (Paul Gaspar's campaign filings show payments to the same consultant that council candidate Phil Graham used, to ruinous effect). Second, Kristin Gaspar's decision to trump up a charge of Brown Act violations against council members Blakespear and Shaffer, a charge that neither the public, nor the city attorney, nor even Gaspar's colleague Mark Muir bought. Tonight, Paul Gaspar has lost the mayor's race in a landslide, and Kristin Gaspar is down by two points with 72% of the vote in. How quickly fortunes change.
UPDATE: Or not! Gaspar surges in late counting of absentee and provisional ballots.