He's finally running a serious campaign, and with the conservative off-year electorate and the Democratic schism, could Alan Lerchbacker actually win the council seat? What seemed impossible a month ago is now entering the realm of remote, but real, possibility.
Lerchbacker is lining up endorsements and running a serious advertising campaign. If he'd started six months earlier and gotten involved in local issues, he'd likely be the favorite right now.
UPDATE: Brian Brady has some good vote breakdown analysis over at SDRostra.
probably will. Consider that… the swing of power could shift back to the development crowd very easy and very quickly.
ReplyDeleteActually - Gaspar votes are more in line with my preference that Kranz, Shaffer, and Barth, yet I am not a developer crowd supporter. Its just those those three are so bad.
As bad as Gaspar. Go take a look at her and Lerch's out of town contributions, and see who's trying to buy this election. Why do you think that side can send multiple mailers? Who is paying for that? The last one is the firefighters and cops, the big pensions that people on here rail about.
DeleteThe rest is out of town developers, realtors, out of town pols, physical therapists. Follow the money...
Lerch is hand picked by the rotary crowd you now Gaspar ,Stokes and Bonds lots of money and connections absolutely pro development .
ReplyDeleteNo way Lerch will win. Encinitas voters aren't that dumb.
ReplyDeleteNope, he doesn't have a chance here.
ReplyDeleteWell over 1000 idiots voted for Nanninga several years ago so, yes Lerch does have a chance and let's hope so. We have had enough idiots on the council, I can think of 5 current members, simply because someone is in Rotary doesn't make them developer friendly. But you go ahead and vote for one of those " maintain community character" candidates I'll vote for someone I expect to approve the streetscape and wants a visually beautiful 101.
DeleteI'm with you. These fools think its OK to go into $13 million DEBT for a fricken lifeguard tower and a $3 to $4 million piece of property that the City does not need. Give me a fricken break.
DeleteIf the City ever does something with PV it will cost the City another $10 million miminum. A life guard tower costs $3 million. Can you imagine the cost of a "World Class Art Center"? Library was $25,000,000. Fire Stations at $6,000,000 each building- I would guess the "Art Center" at $30,000,000 bringing the project cost (Not including interest on all that DEBT) to $40,000,000.
What a sad joke. We need to rid our City Council of these clueless people.
Think what a wonderful Streetscape Encinitas would have for $40,000,000 which would payback its cost in less than 10 years due to higher City revenues from Property Taxes, TOTs, and Sales Tax.
We need City Council (and City Manager) with Business Smarts. Not Social Farts.
Shaffer: The city has the money, so it's OK to spend twice as much as whatever anything really costs.
ReplyDeleteBy that logic, if an item at Trader Joe's costs $5, she volunteers to pay $10.
agreed. Total idiot. who would listen to her at a college course. What a waste. They should expel her from their MBA program. No common sense.
DeleteNo, he started way to late. 56% of the people voted mail in last time, and the number is growing. Smart candidates start early and lock up votes. Rookies and party hacks like Lerch try to buy their way in late.
ReplyDeleteand burnt out hippies like Cameron.
DeleteIsn't Burnt Out Hippie redundant?
DeleteThe City records show Lerch loaned himself nearly $30,000 to fund his campaign. No citizens are backing him! Has anyone seen him attend a council meeting? He does not know the issues of this city yet the Republican Party backed him. Go figure!
ReplyDeleteI hope Encinitians are smarter than electing a guy who is completely unknown to city affairs. He started too late. Sure he has a lot of giant signs and spent a lot on mailers and Newspaper ad. Money does help but does not guarantee a win: Look at what happened to the No on Prop A campaign. The outpent the Yes camp 4 to 1 and were not able to get a majority.
ReplyDeleteI just went on the Transparent California site and logged into Encinitas. Did you know we have 725 employees in our city? Check out some of the salaries and the additional monies they get. All I can say is WOW. It is worth a look.
ReplyDelete12:21 AM
Delete725 employees?? Really. It's after midnight. Maybe you needed to get to bed earlier. The current staffing levels for the city are stated in full-time equivalent (FTE) meaning some positions are full-time, some part-time and some full-time positions are shared, usually half and half.
Here are the FTE numbers in the latest budgets:
City - 216 (rounded up)
SDWD - 25 (San Dieguito Water District is budgeted separately)
Sheriff - 51 (SD County contract rounded up & includes volunteers)
Total - 292 Full-Time Equivalents
So even if you doubled the total it's still under 600 and of course most of the positions are filled by one person. There may be some part-time seasonal positions like life guards and park & rec but that still wouldn't get you to 725.
Activities like landscape maintenance are contracted out to private firms.
12:21 AM - Per Transparent California, total payroll for Encinitas in 2013 was 355 employees.
DeleteThe highest paid was Vina @ $223,856
The lowest paid was George Davies @ $160
Average pay was $75,235
Median Pay was $79.983.
- The Sculpin
And a number of those 355 employees are under contract like lifeguards and recreation. Usually those are seasonal with no benefits.
DeleteOr was the 725 number just a way to say, Boo!
1:02 PM Follow up
DeleteOf the 355 employees listed in the 2013 payroll file a third (118) are contract which leaves the employee count at 237 including the 5 council members.
If City Council could do one smart thing for our City, it would be to fire Gus Vina as City Manager. That is one clueless guy with no positive vision for Encinitas future.
ReplyDeleteHe just is waiting for the day when he retires- less than 2 years to go, so he can high tail it back to Sacramento where he lives. He fits in Encinitas like Oil/Water.
Our City Council is clueless.
Vina and Sabine need to go regardless who is elected.
ReplyDeleteRight, but who takes over for Vina? Who's your knight in shining armor that will take over?
ReplyDeleteWell, we've tried someone with experience in Stockton and Sacramento.
DeleteHow about somebody from Vallejo and San Bernardino!
Get Mike Cole from Pasadena....
DeleteI heard those above say "go look at Lerches out of town contributors, follow the money" and another say "he is donated $30K to buy his seat, with no one else making a donation.". Come on folks you can't have it both ways. All candidates with the exception of Lerch has accepted some money from a developer.
ReplyDeleteTry to imagine this: the person who wrote that Lerch is self-funded doesn't want folks knowing that he's yet another developer tool.
DeleteThe last time I checked the list, Gaspar had the only developer money coming in. Lerch is welcome to spend a whole bunch of money, but the bottom line is who the hell is this guy, what has he done in the community and what is his platform. There's virtually nothing to go on, except "First on the ballot". Not too impressive.
Delete-MGJ
There is that old saying; if you don't want anyone to dislike you, then don't do anything. This blog has trash every council person and every candidate. So if he did do something, wouldn't we trash him and say we have a bunch of losers running for office?
DeleteI brought up this scenario a few weeks ago.....yes, it's very possible. I think that's the strategy. With the GOP endorsement, the appearance of a ticket, a late brochure (signs have been up for awhile) and the remaining candidates in favor of "spending", I can see the uninvolved Gaspar voter easily voting for fellow traveler Lerch without really knowing who he is. After all, this is just city government!
ReplyDelete- The Sculpin
I think this could work. The consensus is that Gaspar will win mayor. If so, who will the Gaspar voter vote for council? Graboi and Cameron have placed joint mailers on mailboxes and on the ground. I can not see them voting for Graboi, so, it comes down to Blakespear who has put out a single mailer, and Lerch who has put out several mailers, and including some where he is paired with Gaspar. He could get in on Gaspar's "coattails". This is not far fetched. This is how tickets work.
DeleteYup.
DeleteProgressives, in typical foot-shooting style are splitting up between Blakespear and Graboi in the council race. Off cycle elections are generally more conservative. Gaspar may have some coat-tails for Lerch.
It's a good thing the upcoming session doesn't have anything important for developers like a General Plan update.
(palm, meet forehead)
I don't see Blakespear as a progressive but maybe that's because I ignore all political mailers. I don't see her as conservative either. For me it's not a toss up between Graboi or Blakespear but a clear choice. Maybe I just haven't played close enough attention to their policy positions.
DeleteFire Gus Vina, and whoever his replacement is.
ReplyDelete(I like to stay ahead of the crowd)
Ha!
DeleteNice........proactive......I like it!
- The Sculpin
And prophetic.
DeleteI'll be interested to see what kind out turnout there is here in Encinitas. There doesn't appear to be any close races in the major categories. Brown is well ahead for Governor. Issa is a shoo-in. Neither Senator is up for reelection. Will any of the ballot measures, local and statewide, generate much turnout? Is there that much passion for local races, regardless of the number (small) of commenters here, to generate a large turnout?
ReplyDeleteIf there is a large number of mail-in ballots then any late push by any local candidate will be for naught. I like to go to the poll to vote but I've already made up my mind on the local races. Still thinking about some of the ballot measures.
The turnout will be about 35,000. On year elections are 65k-70k. These elections favor incumbents and the developer backed crowd of Gaspar, Stocks, Bond, Muir etc....
DeleteLast election some incumbents got booted. Remember Stocks and Bilbray?
DeleteStocks had pissed people off over a 12 year span, then got caught putting up signs early on tape.....Different scenario....
DeleteThe total number of registered voters in Encinitas is approximately 40000. For Prop A, the turnout was 32% (or almost 13000 votes).
DeleteThe fact remains that Stocks and Bilbray were incumbents and got voted out of office. You can't change the facts. Who cares what the scenario was. The point is they are gone.
DeleteSo, whoever said incumbents are favored is not totally accurate.
If I'm reading the SD Registrar of Voters 2010 Official Canvas Results correctly, for the November 2 election here in Encinitas:
DeleteRegistered Voters: 37,730
Voted at Polls: 12,642 (33.51%)
Mail in Ballots: 14,825 (39.29%)
Total: 27,467 (72.80%)
Turnout for all of San Diego was 64.23%. More than half of the votes cast in Encinitas were by mail.
That's a pretty good turnout for a non presidential election. If I remember correctly, the Governor's race was more competitive and Senator Boxer was running for reelection. I don't remember if any of the propositions that year were barn burners.
Tony seems pretty passive in this election. Not a lot of signs or mailers.
ReplyDeleteSince he is not at risk, is it possible he is simply stockpiling cash that he can roll over to the next cycle? If so, it's a pretty smart strategy.
Muir and Vina buying rounds of booze tonight at Union to celebrate the Fed judge allowing city of Stockton to file for bankruptcy but keep paying full pensions.... What a wiener.
ReplyDeleteYes, it seems the judge approved putting a band-aid on a festering wound. It's doubtful this will solve their problems.
DeleteHere's a good summary:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-stockton-pension-court-ruling-cuts-20141029-story.html
Part of Vina's past. Can't believe City Council actually pays this guy.
DeleteLerch speaks, dresses well, and has a name synonymous to a well loved characters on the Addams Family. Worked for James Bond and Wonder Woman. But you need more than that usually and that means being familiar with local issues. Lerch is an unknown because he's never gone to meetings for the baptism of fire. Probably a nice guy, certainly impressive history, but ready for Encinitas? I don't think so. Surprised Gaspar shares her signs with him. But that won't hurt him. She'll be our next mayor and I'm not voting for her. Not for Lerch either. Time will tell but I think its Gaspar and Blakespear.
ReplyDeleteLerch has got to be a plant. Why is he running, when he is clueless about local issues? That $30K he "loaned" himself was probably promised back by late contributions. But Muir ran on being an ex-fireman (irrelevant) and won - I think the Encinitas electorate is not well informed. If Lerch wins (along with Gaspar), get ready for the bulldozers to start scraping....
ReplyDeleteEncinitas electorate isn't too informed.
I've been walking door to door and my informal poll has the following results:
ReplyDeleteGaspar "edges out" Cameron (very close)
Grabio (sp?) upsets Blakespear, Lerch distance 3
If your interested, I'm a Fidel/Prop F supporter.
And where does your candidate finish??? Oh that's right... Dead last. 5th in a four horse race.
DeleteHow rude!
Delete3:40, thanks for the info and thanks for fighting the good fight!
I've known Alex for close to three years now. I get that politics ain't beanbag but the crap directed at him, on this blog, is pretty harsh. It's rare you find a principled, articulate young adult interested in local politics.
DeleteFidel's politics may have moved away from mine but I'll never doubt his principles or commitment. I"ll be proud to know him wherever he finishes.
6:17PM of course, can continue to make yourself feel important by tearing him down. I have little doubt that he;ll accomplish more in the next few years than you or I have in the last ten.
8:03 Oh, Mr. Brady, I remember reading on SD Rostra that Alex was not very fond of you because you made some awful remarks about it.
DeleteWhat meds are you on?
I believe the "awful remarks" were:
DeleteAlex Fidel’s rhetoric has increasingly moved from libertarian to radically progressive– less votes for Kranz .
Fidel would disagree with his left-libertarian views being "progressive," but that's hardly "awful remarks."
So how do you get from that to "What meds are you on?"
Sometimes I curse unmoderated forums.
8:18 I don't think you and I are talking about the same thing. I saw something totally different.
DeleteSo, I still ask the question what meds is Mr. Brady on?
Let him speak for himself if you will.
If it's not this you're referring to, what could it possibly be?
Deletesdrostra.com/?p=38896
Brady is quite civil as Fidel gets overheated.
I've said anything "awful" about Alex. I have challenged him on his GMO stance (and questioned his use of force), I've challenged him on some of his ideas as being outside the jurisdiction of the Encinitas Mayor but I've never said anything "awful" about Alex.
DeleteAlex has, in my opinion, moved from a traditional libertarian stance to one which is more progressive and I disagree with him there but don't mistake how Alex replies to my questions for me saying something "awful" about him.
Alex is wrong on GMOs and his understanding of his jurisdiction as Mayor but never doubt my respect and admiration for him. He is a really fine young man with a good mind.
"Brady is quite civil as Fidel gets overheated."
DeleteI should hope so: I'm over 25 years older than him with more years experience volunteering in local politics than he's been alive. I should hope he gets overheated as well. He's young and enthusiastic and, when I was his age, I got overheated a lot too.
If you read the thread WC linked, I think you'll see just how much I admire him
Mr. Brady you state things in such a way that you always look like the nice decent fellow and gentleman and of course you never have said anything bad about any one. I beg to differ with you.
DeleteI don't care how old you are. Some people who get older think they are wise when in actuality they are not.
Again, what meds are you on?
I know WCV admires you, just as he admires a lot of men.
"Again, what meds are you on?"
DeleteAspirin. I regretfully argued with an anonymous commenter making statements not based in fact. You'll understand that my head hurts from the brick wall.
Nice try Brady. When I find the post you will be apologizing.
DeleteFunny Exchange. Thanks Mr. Brady and other anon.
DeleteGo enjoy the day. Only 4 more days of madness before this nothing election is behind us.
Brady doesn't live in our city. Wish he would keep his nose out of our business.
DeleteBrady - please answer yes or no
Delete1. would a fiscal conservative give an ex-city manager an extra paycheck spiking his pension?
2. would a fiscal conservative look the other way at a city manager working with a contractractor to withhold financial information from the public?
3. would a family values conservative candidate sign their names to untrue ballot statement mailed to voters?
4. would a fiscal conservative candidate take $7 million from funded projects with no plan to pay it back?
These are yes or no answers. In the world of principles. values and integrity we have them or we don't.
Looking forward to your prompt response.
Fact Thrower
ahhhh- Mr. Brady, questions have been asked, will you answer?
DeleteWhat is the status for Prop F? I'd say it will fail, as the town is conservative.
ReplyDeleteNot to say that Encinitas don't smoke weed. Its just they don't want it sold in their own backyard. Easy to understand. The same with bars and liquor stores
DeleteGraboi gets in and doubt there is enough bar crowd vote for Gaspar. Look for Cameron to surprise.
ReplyDeleteLook for Cameron to not surprise, this isn't high school....3:40, your sample is only going to be about as big as the doors you knock on. The vote will be about 35k, and what people tell you is not necessarily true.
ReplyDeleteGaspar and Blakespeare are the clear frontrunners....
http://sheilacameronforencinitas.org/
ReplyDeleteGeeze- She she didn't highlight she hates the streetscape, pedestrians, bicyclists, and roundabouts.
ReplyDeletethat is enough for me not to vote for her and I told 20 of my friends about her KLCC roots.
Oh, it's the KLCC moron! The ignorant fool! The one-trick pony! The broken record!
ReplyDeleteJust like Sheila. At least she gets comfort in the statements. You know, she hates change and all.
ReplyDeleteNo matter what is posted about Sheila Cameron and her popular standing in encinitas, she is attacked. It is clear she is a real contender and the Gaspar camp is worried. The Kranz camp would be worried but they don't exist.
ReplyDeleteThe Kranz camp know we lost, just like the Cameron camp. Cameron's run divided the anti-overdevelopment voters segment and assured a big win for Barbie the development lover.
DeleteYou can thank Kranz for his narrow mind, unwillingness to listen to a majority of his constituents, and siding with the dumbass City Manager on way to many issues. Then, you can thank Cameron for putting the nail in the coffin for Kranz. I am sure she figured, she rather have Barbie as Mayor then Kranz.
From the last two years of voting record, I would rather have Gaspar than Kranz. Gaspar voted against PV and the huge DEBT package for PV and the trophy life guard tower. Tony gave away the farm. And none of them are talking about reducing pension liability.
Great manipulative strategy and tactics by candidate Gaspar who knew she was in the minority and had nothing to lose by posing as a fiscal conservative, don't you think?
DeleteRemember, she voted for $19.3 million for the Community Park and wants high light towers there. So much for her phony pose.
The Kranz camp has the noise of crickets coming from its vacant space.
DeleteLerch mailer shows endorsements that include Bond and Mike "I envision a hillside of condos on Strawberry Fields" Paeske. No hiding behind who he is, although there is a picture of a stretch of sand with some BS about protecting Encinitas. Unless he means protecting developers...if he gets in, look out.
ReplyDeleteHey all, just wanted to ask all of you to check out the "10 Questions" Q&As that we have on all of the mayoral and council candidates on www.thecoastnews.com. Really insightful answers given by the candidates in their own words! All the best.
ReplyDeleteKLCC members giving out bags of dead weeds and dirt for Halloween. It's a members obligation.
ReplyDeleteHey, KLCC moron. How's it going?
DeleteAre you asking Cameron or who?
ReplyDelete